WSABI Research · 2026 MLB regular season
The value of an ABS challenge
What clubs gained by overturning calls, what they left on the table, and what disappeared after their challenge inventory reached zero.
Frozen through July 19 · 1,490 completed games
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01
The league-wide answer
Most uncorrected value was lost by choosing not to challenge, not by running out.
The decision gap —
Run value: corrected versus left uncorrected
Immediate RE from the affected team's perspective.
What happened to every correctable call?
Geometry-inferred wrong calls, including those that were never challenged.
— modeled failed-challenge inventory cost, versus the larger realized value encountered at zero.
02
Teams
Separate the quality of actual challenges from the value a club never tried to recover.
Selected club —
Potential RE left uncorrected
Blue: challenge available. Red: no inventory.
Challenge return versus forgone value
Right is more value gained. Up is more value left uncorrected. Point size is attempts.
Click a club to update the selected-team profile.
03
Players
Catchers supplied the volume; individual leaderboards reveal who converted it into runs.
Challenge performance by role
Official attempts, success rate, and net immediate RE.
Volume and accuracy
Each point is a player. Filters protect success-rate comparisons from tiny samples.
Player leaderboard
Net challenge RE, official Savant publication set.
| Player | Role | Attempts | Success | Net RE |
|---|
04
Situations
The value of a missed decision changes sharply with count, inning, and game state.
Potential RE lost by count
Totals in each cell. The darker cell within each panel carries more value.
Missed with inventory
Out of challenges
A 3–2 mistake costs about 0.56 RE on average; 0–0 leads in total only because it is far more common.
When zero inventory starts to hurt
Potential RE by inning. Extra innings are grouped as 10+ after replenishment.
Game-state explorer
Compare missed and zero-inventory loss across score, outs, bases, or offense/defense.
Where uncorrected calls lived
Pitch height is normalized to each batter's zone; the outline is the ABS rectangle.
Missed with inventory
Out of challenges
05
What these numbers mean
The dashboard separates observed rulings from geometry-based counterfactuals.
Observed challenge results
Overturned and upheld outcomes come from explicit MLB review records and match Savant's official analytical set.
Missed with inventory
A wrong adverse call inferred from validated ABS geometry when the team still had at least one challenge but did not use it.
Out of challenges
A wrong adverse call encountered at reconstructed zero inventory. It is potential correctable value, not a claim that every pitch would have been challenged.
Inventory cost
The smaller modeled cost of a failed challenge accounts for the chance that a future correctable pitch would actually be recognized and challenged.